The economy of the United States ended 2024 in pretty good shape.  Most economists expect the U.S. to build on the gains of 2024 as anxiety over the presidential election wanes, with economic activity growing, and with interest rates continuing to decline.

Officials of the Federal Reserve Bank have conducted the “Blue Chip Survey” of 50 professional economists, asking for their projections for the year ahead.  The economists were asked for their predictions of the rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, and the unemployment rate.

The results of the survey are summarized below and in the chart that follows:

• The average of the top 10 forecasts for GDP growth (most optimistic) is 2.5%, while the average of the bottom 10 (most pessimistic) is 1.9%.
• The average of the top 10 forecasts for inflation is 2.8% while the bottom 10 average is 2.1%.
• The average of the top 10 forecasts for the unemployment rate is 4.5% while the bottom 10 average is 4.0%.

For the full report of the Blue Chip Survey, please click here.

Other economist have mentioned several things that might negatively affect the U.S. economy in 2025 including retaliatory tariffs tit-for-tat hostilities among global economies, mass deportations of a significant portion of the country’s labor force, major terrorist attacks particularly on American infrastructure, and wider global wars.

On the positive side, a Forbes author wrote that artificial intelligence could boost output per worker in a number of sectors, including healthcare, finance, manufacturing and information technology, adding to the growth of GDP.

Absent any of the negative factors, the year ahead looks like the American economy will move along quite nicely.

On a personal note from my business brokerage office, interest anong business buyers for privately held businesses remains strong.  One economist pointed out that business brokers are usually the first profession to feel the effects of any change in the economy.  If that’s true, my prediction is that 2025 will be a good year for the American economy.

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William Bruce is an Accredited Business Intermediary (ABI) and Senior Valuation Analyst (SVA) assisting buyers and sellers of privately held businesses in the transfer of ownership.  He currently serves as president of the American Business Brokers Association.  His practice includes consulting services nationally on issues of business valuation and transfer.   With offices in Fairhope, Alabama and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, he may be reached at (251) 990-5934 (Fairhope), 225-465-5799 (Baton Rouge) or by email at Will@WilliamBruce.org.  The firm’s most recent closings can be viewed here.